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Croatia vs Italy Prediction: Defending champions to claim narrow win in clash of titans in Euro 2024

Croatia vs Italy Prediction: Defending champions to claim narrow win in clash of titans in Euro 2024

This will be Croatia and Italy’s third meeting at a major tournament, all taking place in the group stages. Croatia won 2-1 at the 2002 World Cup before a 1-1 draw at Euro 2012

Croatia faces a crucial battle against an impressive Italy side at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig on Monday. Luka Modric and his team must secure a positive result to have any hope of advancing to the last 16 of UEFA Euro 2024. Ahead of the Croatia vs Italy game, let us take a look at the predictions.

Croatia vs Italy Prediction

According to the Opta supercomputer, Italy is the favorite in this encounter. Luciano Spalletti’s squad has a 50.6% chance of winning based on 10,000 pre-match simulations. Croatia, on the other hand, secured victory in just 25.7% of scenarios, while a draw, which would likely be enough for Italy to secure second place in Group B, occurred 24.9% of the time.

Croatia has been uncharacteristically subdued at Euro 2024 and appears to be a shadow of their former selves. Italy’s current form suggests they should be able to win this game.

Croatia Form

Croatia is at the bottom of their group and has struggled this month. Zlatko Dalić’s side has managed just one point from their first two games. They were beaten 3-0 by Group B leaders Spain and conceded a last-minute equalizer against Albania. Despite playing well in phases, they have looked lethargic for large portions of both matches, possibly due to the age profile of their squad.

Croatia has “won” each of their two games on the expected goals count, making their one point from a possible six seem harsh. They have already had more shots (38) and shots on target (15) at Euro 2024 than in the entire Euro 2020 group stage (30 shots, 10 on target).

Italy form

Italy is currently second in Group B and has shown significant improvement over the past week. The Azzurri suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Spain in their previous game and will need to bounce back in this crucial match. In that game, Italy attempted their fewest shots in a Euros match on record (four), with only one on target.

Despite this setback, Italy has a strong history of performing well in the group stages of the European Championship. Since the introduction of the group phase in 1980, Italy has lost their final group game only once in nine appearances (W6 D2), a 1-0 defeat to the Republic of Ireland in 2016.

Croatia vs Italy Predicted XI

Croatia Predicted XI:
Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Sucic, Kovacic; Pasalic, Budimir, Kramaric

Italy Predicted XI:
Donnarumma; Darmian, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Fagioli, Barella; Chiesa, Pellegrini, Zaccagni; Retegui

Croatia vs Italy Squads

Croatia

Dominik Livakovic, Ivica Ivusic, Nediljko Labrovic, Borna Sosa, Domagoj Vida, Josip Juranovic, Josip Stanisic, Josip Sutalo, Josko Gvardiol, Marin Pongracic, Martin Erlic, Lovro Majer, Luka Ivanusec, Luka Modric, Luka Sucic, Marcelo Brozovic, Mario Pasalic, Martin Baturina, Mateo Kovacic, Nikola Vlasic, Andrej Kramaric, Ante Budimir, Bruno Petkovic, Ivan Perisic, Marco Pasalic, Marko Pjaca. 

Head coach: Zlatko Dalić

Italy

Alex Meret, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Guglielmo Vicario, Alessandro Bastoni, Alessandro Buongiorno, Andrea Cambiaso, Federico Dimarco, Federico Gatti, Gianluca Mancini, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Matteo Darmian, Raoul Bellanova, Riccardo Calafiori, Bryan Cristante, Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Michael Folorunsho, Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Fagioli, Federico Chiesa, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Mateo Retegui, Mattia Zaccagni, Stephan El Shaarawy. 

Head coach: Luciano Spalletti 

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