For two league stage games, everything looked near-perfect. India brushed aside rivals Pakistan, hammered the Netherlands and climbed near the top of Group A with a healthy net run rate. Then came South Africa.
And with it, a reality check that Harmanpreet Kaur‘s side perhaps needed at the ongoing ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2026. Marizanne Kapp produced one of the knocks of the tournament, smashing an unbeaten 81 off 45 balls to guide South Africa to a six-wicket win in Manchester. And with just one loss, India’s qualification now is in jeopardy.
That’s what happens when just the top two teams will qualify from a group of six sides. However, the good news is that the Women in Blue still have destiny in their own hands.
What do India need to do now?
India currently have four points from three matches and remain very much in the race for a semifinal spot. Their net run rate of +2.511 is comfortably better than South Africa’s (-0.546) and Bangladesh’s, which could prove vital later. The simplest route for India to qualify is by winning both remaining matches.
India face Bangladesh on June 25 before taking on tournament favourites and six-time champions Australia at a sold-out Lord’s on June 28. If Harmanpreet’s team wins both games, they will move to eight points and should qualify regardless of what South Africa does.
The Bangladesh game now becomes important. A victory there would set up a virtual quarterfinal against Australia (given SA win both their remaining games). Things become complicated if India slip up.
Should India lose either of their remaining matches and South Africa win both of theirs against the Netherlands and Bangladesh, the Proteas would move ahead and leave India relying on other results. Bangladesh are not out of the race either. They still have matches against both India and South Africa, meaning they could shake up the group if they string together two wins. But considering the disparity between Bangladesh and other teams, chances for that to happen is nearly impossible.
Remaining Group A matches at Women’s T20 World Cup
- June 23: Australia vs Pakistan
- June 25: India vs Bangladesh
- June 25: South Africa vs the Netherlands
- June 27: Pakistan vs the Netherlands
- June 28: South Africa vs Bangladesh
- June 28: India vs Australia
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India’s biggest advantage at the moment is their net run rate. The dominating wins over Pakistan and the Netherlands have left Harmanpreet’s side with a cushion that South Africa currently lacks. Even if multiple teams finish level on points, India’s superior run rate could help separate them from the chasing pack.
Australia remain the strongest team in the group. They have won all three matches so far and possess a net run rate of +4.391. One more win from their remaining matches against Pakistan and India should be enough to secure a semifinal berth. That leaves India, South Africa and Bangladesh battling for the second qualification spot.
The equation, therefore, is fairly simple. Beat Bangladesh, give Australia a proper fight and beat them too. If not, just pray that South Africa lose one of their remaining game. But if South Africa win both their matches, and India can’t beat Australia, then it is all over for the current women’s 50-over champions.
