Pakistan were almost out. Then England did them a favour. Harry Brook’s side knocked over New Zealand in Colombo, and just like that, Salman Agha’s men were dragged back from the brink. England have sealed top spot in Super 8 Group 2 with six points.
Now, New Zealand have completed their campaign with three points and a healthy Net Run Rate (NRR) of +1.390. Pakistan sit on one point from two games, with an NRR of -0.461 and one final shot left. It’s simple on paper. Beat Sri Lanka and Pakistan move to three points, level with New Zealand. But it won’t be points that decide this. It will be NRR.
Qualification scenario for Pakistan
Pakistan need to bring out their A-game against Sri Lanka tonight at Pallekele, something they haven’t done so far in the tournament. If they bat first, the magic number is roughly 64–65 runs, depending on the total they put up. If they bowl first, they need to hunt down the target inside 13 overs or thereabouts. Here’s how it breaks down:
If Pakistan bat first
| 1st Innings Score | Required Win Margin (By Runs) |
|---|---|
| 103–150 | 63 runs or more |
| 151–198 | 64 runs or more |
| 199–246 | 65 runs or more |
| 247+ | Margin increases accordingly |
The higher they score, the bigger the margin required. If they post something around 170, they are looking at defending it by at least 64 runs. So 170–106 or better.
If Pakistan bowl first
| Target | Must Chase By |
|---|---|
| 115–123 | 12.4 overs or before |
| 124–132 | 12.5 overs or before |
| 133–142 | 12.6 overs or before |
| 143–152 | 13.1 overs or before |
| 153–163 | 13.2 overs or before |
| 164–175 | 13.3 overs or before |
If Sri Lanka score 170, Pakistan would need to reach 171 in around 13 overs to tilt the NRR equation in their favour. Even a couple of balls can change the outcome.
The washed-out clash against New Zealand earlier in the Super 8 hurt Pakistan. The loss to England pushed them to the edge. Now everything depends on one explosive performance. Sri Lanka are already eliminated, but they won’t roll over in front of the home crowd. Pakistan ideally need to keep them close to 100 if bowling first. If chasing, it has to be fearless batting from Pakistan.
