Pakistan’s T20 World Cup 2026 campaign could be over even before they face the first ball. Well, they would have no one but themselves to blame if it happens. It would be utterly comical if their decision to boycott their game against India backfires and we see one of the USA, Namibia or the Netherlands qualify for the Super Eight Stage and not them.
Their opening Group match against the Netherlands on February 7 in Colombo is under serious threat from rain, with weather forecasts suggesting a high chance of interruptions throughout the day. According to AccuWeather, there is an 83 percent chance of rain in Colombo on match day. For Pakistan, this is not just a weather concern but a tournament-defining one. Having already confirmed that they will boycott their scheduled match against India on February 15, Pakistan are operating with a reduced margin for error compared to the rest of the group.
A washout against the Netherlands could significantly dent Pakistan’s chances of reaching the Super 8s.
Why Pakistan vs Netherlands has become a must-win
By opting out of the India fixture, Pakistan will play fewer matches than the other teams in the group. The only way they can qualify on their own terms is by winning all their remaining games, which would take them to six points. That scenario still leaves room for qualification if India beat the rest of the group.
However, if the Netherlands match is washed out, Pakistan’s maximum possible tally drops to five points, even if they beat the USA and Namibia. That opens the door for the Netherlands, who can also reach five points by winning their games against the USA and Namibia without needing to upset India.
In that situation, qualification would come down to net run rate. With Pakistan already set to forfeit one match due to the boycott, their NRR could take a hit, leaving them vulnerable to being edged out by the Dutch. Also, don’t be surprised if any of these associate nations stumble Pakistan, who have a history of enduring stunning defeats. At T20 World Cup 2022, Pakistan endured a defeat to Zimbabwe before recording a humbling loss to USA in 2024.
Rain has already played spoilsport in Colombo. Pakistan’s warm-up game against Ireland, as well as Australia’s fixture against the Netherlands, were both washed out without a ball being bowled. The forecast for February 7 suggests similar conditions.
Pakistan vs Netherlands, Colombo weather: Hourly rain forecast (Feb 7)
| Time | Rain Probability |
|---|---|
| 11:00 AM | 5% |
| 12:00 PM | 8% |
| 1:00 PM | 60% |
| 2:00 PM | 68% |
| 3:00 PM | 66% |
| 4:00 PM | 30% |
| 5:00 PM | 24% |
While Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has publicly stated that Pakistan will not play India, sources suggest that backchannel discussions between the Pakistan Cricket Board and the International Cricket Council are ongoing. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC) has also written to Pakistan and have asked to change their mind as well. Sri Lanka have also pointed out some serious examples of peace and partnership.
While the entry to the Pakistan vs Netherlands game is free for fans in Colombo, people in Pakistan would be praying in front of their television screens that the rain gods stay away. But again, even if the PAK vs NED match does get washed out, Pakistan always have ‘Qudrat ka Nizam’ on their side.
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