Euro 2024 Qualification: Four teams have at least a 90% chance of qualifying for the 2024 European Championship with Portugal leading the way, a Nielsen’s Gracenote analysis has revealed ahead of the qualifiers that begin this week. The study said 2016 champions Portugal have the highest chance of progressing to the 2024 finals at 96% based on simulations followed by Switzerland (90%), Croatia (90%) and Spain (90%). Follow Euro Qualifiers Updates with InsideSport.IN.
The teams are split into 10 groups with the top two automatically qualifying for the Euro finals which will be hosted by Germany, who qualify automatically as hosts. Portugal, who are now being coached by Roberto Martinez, are in the same qualifying group as Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iceland, Luxembourg, Slovakia and Liechtenstein.
Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland, Serbia, France, the Czech Republic, Italy, England, Hungary, Sweden, Wales, Slovenia, Norway, Romania and Bosnia are the other teams expected to finish in the top two.
Norway are looking to qualify for their first Euros since 2000 with Manchester City striker Erling Haaland expected to lead the line while Arsenal midfielder Martin Odegaard captains the side. Haaland has scored 42 times for Manchester City this season but he will miss the first two qualifiers against Spain and Georgia due to a groin injury.
Reigning champions Italy (78%) and 2020 runners-up England (77%) are in the same group along with Ukraine, Malta and North Macedonia. Italy host England on Thursday in Naples. Italy also have a point to prove after they missed out on qualifying for the World Cup for a second consecutive time following an upset by North Macedonia in the playoffs last year.
World Cup runners-up France have the Netherlands to contend with in their qualifying group but both teams are expected to qualify ahead of Ireland, Greece and Gibraltar.
Teams that won their Nations League groups across tiers A, B and C — the Netherlands, Croatia, Spain, Italy, Israel, Bosnia, Serbia, Scotland, Georgia, Greece, Turkey and Kazakhstan — are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs for the final three spots if they do not qualify in the top two.
Euro 2024 will have 24 teams spread across six groups.
TEAMS MOST LIKELY TO QUALIFY FOR EURO 2024
1 PORTUGAL 96%
2 SWITZERLAND 90%
3 CROATIA 90%
4 SPAIN 90%
5 BELGIUM 88%
6 DENMARK 88%
7 NETHERLANDS 87%
8 POLAND 86%
9 SERBIA 86%
10 FRANCE 86%
11 CZECH REPUBLIC 82%
12 ITALY 78%
13 ENGLAND 77%
14 HUNGARY 74%
15 SWEDEN 58%
16 WALES 53%
17 SLOVENIA 46%
18 NORWAY 44%
19 ROMANIA 42%
20 BOSNIA 40%
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