The India cricket team lock horns with New Zealand in a winner-takes-all decider at the Holkar Stadium on Sunday with the series locked at 1–1. After India sneaked home in Vadodara, the Kiwis hit back emphatically in Rajkot, chasing 285 on the back of Daryl Mitchell’s masterful century. A win gives India another routine home ODI series, but a loss hands New Zealand their first-ever bilateral ODI triumph on Indian soil. It would be quite huge if New Zealand turn out as the victor, considering the gulf of disparity between the two teams.
Match Prediction & Win Probability for IND vs NZ 3rd ODI
Prediction: India to win
Win Probability: India 70–85% | New Zealand 15–30%
Reasoning: Holkar Stadium has been India’s fortress with a perfect 7/7 record. The small boundaries and batting-friendly pitch suit India’s top order far more than Rajkot did. New Zealand have momentum, but containing Rohit, Kohli and Gill on this ground is a different challenge altogether. Also, India’s bowling attack would be hurting from the loss and will come up with better plans in Indore. Perhaps they might play Arshdeep Singh as well to bolster the pace attack.
Match Details: IND vs NZ 3rd ODI
- Match: India vs New Zealand, 3rd ODI
- Date: January 18, 2026 (Sunday)
- Time: 1:30 PM IST (Toss at 1:00 PM)
- Venue: Holkar Stadium, Indore
- Live Streaming: JioHotstar | Broadcast: Star Sports Network
Pitch & Weather Report
- Runs, runs, runs: Indore is a batting paradise where India once posted 418 and 385 in previous ODIs.
- Short boundaries: Square ropes around 60–65 metres invite big hitting.
- Dew factor: Chasing becomes easier in the evening.
- Weather: Clear skies, temperature between 12–28°C.
IND vs NZ: Team news & Probable XIs
India
Arshdeep Singh is likely to replace Prasidh Krishna for extra control with the new ball. Nitish Kumar Reddy’s place is under scrutiny after quiet outings, while Ravindra Jadeja needs a statement performance with Axar Patel waiting in the wings.
India Probable Playing XI: Shubman Gill (C), Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (WK), Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Harshit Rana, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Arshdeep Singh.
New Zealand
The visitors are unlikely to tinker with a winning combination. Debutant spinner Jayden Lennox impressed in Rajkot and will again be key alongside Bracewell and Phillips.
New Zealand Playing XI: Devon Conway, Henry Nicholls, Will Young, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Hay (WK), Michael Bracewell (C), Zakary Foulkes, Kristian Clarke, Kyle Jamieson, Jayden Lennox
Key Players to Watch for IND vs NZ 3rd ODI
- Virat Kohli (IND): In red-hot touch since 2025 with 767 runs in 15 innings at 63.91 and a strike rate of 96.23, including 3 hundreds and 5 fifties.
- Daryl Mitchell (NZ): The tormentor-in-chief – 976 runs since 2025 at 65.06 with two centuries; India have had no answer to him.
- Kyle Jamieson (NZ): 10 wickets in 6 ODIs vs India at 26.1 and economy of 4.92, the one bowler who can trouble India even on flat decks.
