Although the focus currently, especially for the Indian team is the T20I format, but one must not forget the Tests, and Shubman Gill‘s team’s struggles in the format. The boys have been going through a horrific patch, where first they failed to qualify for the WTC final of the 2023-25 cycle and now, the chances of qualification for the WTC final 2025-27 looks bleak as well.
While the 0-3 loss to New Zealand at home led to India’s downfall the last time, this time it could be 0-2 loss vs South Africa at home. So, what does India need to do, to be able to qualify for the WTC final? InsideSport takes a look at the WTC final qualification scenarios.
Only 4% qualification chance for India
In the current WTC cycle, the Indian team has played 9 matches, where they have won 4 and lost as many. The show in England was decent, plus two wins at home came against the West Indies, but they have suffered on account of not being able to tackle spin in home conditions. Nonetheless, as per data scientist, India has only a 4% chance of making the final.
That is because they will have to win 8 out of their remaining 9 matches in the current cycle. Improbable, given the poor form in the format, that the team has shown. They have poor win% of 48.15, which is even below that of Pakistan, as of now.
Matches left: India vs Sri Lanka (2 Tests in August), India vs New Zealand (2 Tests in October), India vs Australia (5 Tests in Jan 2027)
The frontrunners – Australia & South Africa
As of now, the two teams which look making the WTC final are – Australia and South Africa, who have been head and shoulders better than the competition. While Australia has a 91% chance of going through, the Proteas have a 71% chance. Pat Cummins-led side has to win 7 from the 14 matches left in the cycle, while Bavuma’s team has to register 6 from 10 remaining.
WTC 2025-27 points table (updated)
| Pos | Team | Played | Won | Lost | Draw | Ded | Points | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 87.50 |
| 2 | New Zealand | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 77.78 |
| 3 | South Africa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 75.00 |
| 4 | Sri Lanka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 66.67 |
| 5 | Pakistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 50.00 |
| 6 | India | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 48.15 |
| 7 | England | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 31.67 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16.67 |
| 9 | West Indies | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4.17 |
